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seems underwhelming. I don't believe institutional and state level buying are priced in.

While that may seem underwhelming, it is what one would expect _on average_ by looking at history and applying a plausible curve to fit the data as best one can.

While the trend line price is the real power in bitcoin, everyone is attracted by the blow off tops. Annual rates of return of 43% for 2025, 42-40% for 2026-2028 is in and of itself remarkable.

Will there be a period of time in the next few years where bitcoin price will be well above model price? Yeah. If you want to capture 95% of the daily price points in a band around the power law, simply take the model price and divide by about 2 and multiply by roughly 4.

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Dr. Bitcoin, MD 11mo ago

Interestingly, if price deviates from power law model, it would imply something very profound about the money distribution amongst those new to bitcoin…power law progression would imply they hold a specific large fraction of the money supply, but if price is much much higher than expected, it’s because they have way way more money than everyone else in the market assumes.

If price fails to get up to model price, we’d know they have less money than expected.

So are the next entrants to the market richer than we expect or poorer? Time will tell.

William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

I'm guessing richer since the next round seems like it will be large buyers probably mostly going through ETFs.

To your point above, a cagr of 40% is quite high and does lead to high price levels in 20 years. I believe Saylor ran his cagr projection at 20% and ended up at $46m per coin in 2040.

William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

did you see Plan B is trading his bitcoin for an ETF? 🤦‍♂️

Dr. Bitcoin, MD 11mo ago

Meh. I suspect he’s going to have his bitcoin identity death.

Why? Two reasons.

1) security. He probably values all of his fingers. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/10-arrested-in-france-over-kidnapping-and-torture-of-ledger-co-founder-and-wife-both-rescued/articleshow/117529185.cms

2) his model has been very useful but everyone who can do math knows eventually his model must fail to match reality. The fact that it has worked as well as it has from 2019 until now is a massive success.

Trust me. I’ve been around since July 2010. I’ve seen many disappear. I’d have disappeared too if I were smarter…because if I were smarter, I’d be phenomenally rich 😂

William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

your first point is very interesting. all of these influencers are in a dangerous position being known as people who have a high stake in self-custodied bitcoin. dangerous to both themselves and their families.

Dr. Bitcoin, MD 11mo ago

Exactly.

Right now, the only ways to access security easily boil down to a scavenger hunt, with or without either a PIN code on a hardware wallet and/or a passphrase on the seed at the end.

But there has existed since the beginning of bitcoin a way to post date bitcoin transactions…and recently we can now time lock utxo’s directly for up to about a year. Combined these should be very useful primitives for time based security rather than space based security.