I am of the opinion that macro data and events are coalescing almost perfectly for a beautiful mid-September pivot (back) to #QE.
A new liquidity wave is coming, which is good for risk assets, in general.
And #Bitcoin is the Great Absorber of Liquidityā¦ so you do the math.
Cheers.
Let's get a nice flash-crash first, please š
š¤ then the refiās happen. Then the liquidity shifts from housing to BTC as Pac-Man eats everything. Oct/Nov should be interesting.
Lots of bad sentiment out here atm, canāt really see the negative for rates cuts, only doubt have is if we only see 1 or 2 after September and we run higher rates for longer. How this will effect bitcoin into next year
What happened to Michael Jackson?
We got the expected verbal policy pivot from Powell in late August at Jackson Hole.
I expect this to be confirmed with an actionable #QE plan at the upcoming FOMC meeting and press conference in mid-September.
One thing is for sure, sep-jan is not going to be boring. So much catalysts feeding on each other, insane.
This long consolidation has really shifted sentiment quite negative. Setting up well into the fall
Agreed.
Do your tea leaves suggest a stock market bubble? Im long on most everything I own but I dont want to buy these dips if thereās a bubble sentiment brewingā¦ Iām not asking for financial advice, just your opinionš»
I do not believe we are on the cusp of a major recession, as many doom and gloomers believe.
Torn between the maddening thoughts of understanding how the market makers/players are able to persist this never ending price band with seemingly new buying demand pressure of the ETFs versus thinking happy thoughts of possibly creating a future cost base level that is far above prior ownership cost levels.
i expect a rip down and then pop to some big numba
to your knowledge does the fiat trend towards new QE support the #BTC post having cycle trend or is this seperate to that and additive to that cycle?
16 billion FTX cash redistribution in Q4 too. What's your take that during previous cutting cycles market typically dumps not pumps.
Most past examples saw rate cuts being triggered by a major recession.
The current macro conditions are a bit unusual (some weakness and some strength), but are similar in some ways to the mid-1990s, when the Fed also cut rates, but there wasnāt a major market crash. In fact, it helped kick off the late 1990s dot com bubble.
What about the election cycle? Some curve balls there Iād expect.
Probably risk off a little bit this month and next because uncertainty of the upcoming election. This seems like the typical pattern in election years. September down and some Octobers red. Then take off after the election. We shall see.
Agreed.
Iād throw ārate cutsā into the same basket. Cautious at first for risk assets then not so much in the out QTRās.
Time will tell. Donāt use leverage & stay solvent & time is on your side either way. š«”
Fair points. With election coming up I'd assume it would be risk off until after election day or when there is a clearer picture of who is the clear favorite to win.
Yesterday added some serious fuel to the markets. BTC relatively stable, USD bid, yen bid, QQQ/Mag7 heavily shorted, paired along with volatility funds heavily short vol.
If/when the liquidity is realized, there is going to be a face ripper of a move as the short vol positions unwind. If BTC can show stability in this 54-60 range, I'll be high conviction long BTC.
Hope youāre right! Another podsibility is that September will be a rough month with still positive fabricated macro data, rates bouncing as a result creating chaos in the markets and rising vol. We will only see a 25bps cut in Sept to make sure Joe Biden āwas rightā and expectations are made for the elections, and wonāt see the real Pivot until after the elections chaos and real macro data drops in Nov, Dec, Jan taking the yields down for a recession and boosting our bitty bags.
Do you care about the yield curve inversion (which has apparently uninverted today) as a guide to a recessionā¦or have unconventional monetary policies wiped this from the history play book?
Considering the start of a recession is backdated by months to years who really cares š
