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Here’s the (very conservative) price prediction

For the price of a house (in bitcoin) by 2033

.04 bitcoin 🏡

https://www.youtube.com/live/IGNIs-tCuF8?si=lX29JtcWKf4WBh5M

This is ridiculous analysis. It seems very few including you seem to understand a very basic rule of the law of large numbers.

It is much easier for bitcoin to go from a $1B to $100B in market cap than to go from $1T to $100T because $100 trillion is a much larger number relative to the net worth of the world.

What $37M /BTC represents is a bitcoin market cap much greater than the entire net worth of the world!

Of course that is ridiculous. The only way that would ever happen is if the purchasing power of the dollar collapsed, but then a house price in dollars would been many multiples of $1.5M.

It is this type of child like analysis that I see so often that leads people to unrealistic expectations and then disappointment when expectations aren’t reached.

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Discussion

Jor 1y ago 💬 1

First off, your use of “ridiculous” and “childish” immediately discredits anything you say from that point on.

Who the fuck are you?

Secondly, your thesis on worldwide assets is based on the fiat standard. And we have no real idea how much of these assets actually exist. We have an idea but it’s no where close to reality.

Bitcoin does not have a “cap” in fiat terms because fiat has no bottom.

Thanks for stopping by.

nobody 1y ago 💬 1

Sure, keep defending the ridiculous.

We do have a general idea of how much currency there is the world. About $80T. Let’s just say $100T to round off. Let’s say that doubles to $200T in 2033. (Which would be close if a house price goes from 600k to $1.5M) That is equivalent to about $10M/BTC.

What you are actually saying is that in 10 years that the bitcoin market cap will be 4X the total value of money in the world, and you call that “conservative”. LOL.

One can be BAF on bitcoin and at the same time tired of hopium based irrational analysis like this that raises expectations of those that don’t know any better.

Jor 1y ago

The US debt alone has gone from 10T to 34T in the last decade.

You’re still measuring and thinking in terms of the old system. Very narrow minded.

I think your analysis is ridiculous and I think it could get to even more than that in the next 10-20 years.

But here’s the beauty of it…

You can whatever you want.

You can think whatever you want.

The reality is that neither of us have any fucking clue what the world is going to look like in 10 years or what the price of bitcoin will be in USD terms.

So there’s no sense being a dickhead about it.