Translation for the bottom part: In the 19th century, growth and depression phases alternated pretty much like clockwork. That was the classic view of the economic cycle: once normal conditions came back, people and governments called for a new credit expansion, and the cycle would start over.

Over time, folks got used to thinking of the cycle as an inevitable feature of the economy, and researchers tried to figure out how long it lasted. But all attempts to nail down its duration ended up producing wild, unrealistic results. Some economists claimed the cycle lasted 11 years, which led to the idea that the cycle wasn’t caused by society or people but by cosmic factors — like sunspots. These theories were just shots in the dark. First off, it’s not true that the cycle lasts exactly 11 years. But even if it did, why would businesses that adapt to nature, climate, and soil fertility blindly follow such cosmic rhythms?