for secp256k1 it's all about timing. if a shor's attack happens quickly enough, that's also the end of the story.
but don't count out grover's and sha256 either, quadratic speedup is a real thing, it's all about creative attacks and the speed of the quantum machine.
Still a hard problem given we are still scratching our heads about packing of quibits and not getting overwhelmed with noise. But then again, we thought md5 and DES was secure, or Enigma at some time in the past. The short story is, nobody can predict future
100%. It’s also entirely possible we discover new quantum algorithms, right now we only really have two of concern. There could be a number out there. And of course, we really have no idea yet the degree to which AI can supercharge error correction and noise reduction
