This analysis suggests the bear market lasts until May-Sept 2024 at which point we enter a new bull.
Sounds fucking brutal. What do you think?
https://bombthrower.com/unlocking-the-psychology-of-bitcoins-bear-market/
Discussion
Sent you a DM a few days back. I don’t think you’ve see it.
By “Bear market” this analysis is referring to no new all time highs in price. Under that framework, this conclusion is no big surprise. Patience.
I think predicting the future is hard, and we should just build for the worst, hope for the best, and keep stacking sats 🫡
So stay humble?
I do wonder how Bitcoin will respond if we get a recession, but I think my base case is that we’ll see a deflationary dip in a longer inflationary trend (h/t Lynn Alden). The Fed is pushing a rope but they seem to fear deflation more than inflation so to the extent they can impact things I think we get more inflationary pressure which is bullish for Bitcoin.
This is the best news I’ve heard all day.
Especially when everything is in a constant change.