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Bitcoin Game Show Time

You’re on a game show with 3 cold wallets:

-One has 1 BTC

-Two are empty

You pick Wallet A.

The host opens Wallet B…it’s empty.

Now he asks:

Do you want to switch to Wallet C? Or stay with Wallet A?

Drop your answer and your reasoning below.

No googling or AI. I wanna see how your mind works.

nostr:nprofile1qqsvn6daczcrcgdaxdap9h84k33af876l6yy4gfth9gvrqhfund7nwqpzfmhxue69uhhqatjwpkx2urpvuhx2ucpzfmhxue69uhk7enxvd5xz6tw9ec82cs34rz74 500

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bitcoinpoorguy 比特幣傢伙 🇭🇰 8mo ago

Switch .

Odds goes from 33.3% to 66.6%.

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bitcoinpoorguy 比特幣傢伙 🇭🇰 8mo ago

Intuitively they are the same odds.

But no.

Imagine there’re 100 boxes.

You chose 1.

The host open 98 empty boxes.

Will you switch?

99% of the time you switch you will win 🏆

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bitcoinpoorguy 比特幣傢伙 🇭🇰 8mo ago

People mix up probability and possibility easily

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