Bitcoin Game Show Time

You’re on a game show with 3 cold wallets:

-One has 1 BTC

-Two are empty

You pick Wallet A.

The host opens Wallet B…it’s empty.

Now he asks:

Do you want to switch to Wallet C? Or stay with Wallet A?

Drop your answer and your reasoning below.

No googling or AI. I wanna see how your mind works.

nostr:nprofile1qqsvn6daczcrcgdaxdap9h84k33af876l6yy4gfth9gvrqhfund7nwqpzfmhxue69uhhqatjwpkx2urpvuhx2ucpzfmhxue69uhk7enxvd5xz6tw9ec82cs34rz74 500

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Discussion

Good job

Keep A

I had a 1in 3 chance

Now i have a 1 in 2 chance

Better odds

Well actually you have a 2/3 chance now so you have a 66% chance. Higher than 50% yeah?!

Just went through this with some buddies. Pretty cool.

Change. Second choice has 66% chance of being correct.

1st event 33% no new event therefore 2nd choice 66% not 50%

As in the first box you have 2 chances of being wrong out of 3 but second time round you have one chance of being wrong out of three

1 BTC

Wallet B Empty 🙅‍♂️

Wallet A is unknown

Wallet C is unknown

If i can check wallet A answer is clear ✨

If i cant check A

Chance is 50/50 🤣

And i will stay with A if 50/50

Yes, I can see that.

I don't know where they got the idea that if you take x and then go to y, your chances go up to 66%, wtf. Maybe I don’t get it.

I would just chose B bcs I like that letter more 🤗

I make a deal with the contestant who goes after me. Whoever picks the full wallet splits half of the winnings with the other person. Everyone wins! 😬

Switch .

Odds goes from 33.3% to 66.6%.

Intuitively they are the same odds.

But no.

Imagine there’re 100 boxes.

You chose 1.

The host open 98 empty boxes.

Will you switch?

99% of the time you switch you will win 🏆

People mix up probability and possibility easily

u switch

an important part of the monty hall problem you left out is that the host has to pick an empty wallet. he isn’t picking a wallet at random.

if you blow up the scale from 3 wallets to 1000 it’s obvious.

u pick one, host opens 998 empty wallets, do u stay or switch?

obvious to switch there.

principles are the same with only 3 wallets

I'm familiar with the original answer, but wonder, you present it as if the host opened a random wallet, instead of purposely opening an empty one. I wonder if that changes the logic behind this riddle, since there is a chance he opened the filled wallet 🤔 however my intuition says no since the riddle takes off from the same point as the original.

🫡

.

Punch him in the face, take both and run 😂

For me it is easy, if he asked it is because he is loosing the game, so keep A.

If he don't ask it is because he know he have win.