With this morning's JOLTs data showing that job openings are falling--well below estimates--and layoffs increasing, futures show a 47% chance of a 50bp rate cute in September, up from 37% yesterday. And bad news is once again 'good news' for the markets.
i have learnt so much from you - your in depth free giving information and insight is next level! if i ever meet you in person i will buy you a beer!
Is there any explanation(in terms of the trades being unwound) for how markets have historically started to fall once rate cuts commenced ?
So thankful for #bitcoin. Way more rational than my fiat 401k.
Stay humble and stack sats……..
will you offer any discount promo for your information letters in the future?(possibily soon???)
maybe something around election time 😉✌️
How was the knowledge base of recession indicators in 2000 and 2007? With this yield conversion and everyone aware of the sell off after rate cuts…why not go short the market right now? It seems too easy, right? Is this time different because of the advent of financial education via the internet? Or should I just be shorting? Asking for a friend
this has been a really tough one - what seemed like a well telegraphed recession from a major hiking cycle, inverted yield curve and bank failures hasnt played out yet due to printing, helicopter money and massive fiscal deficit spend.
obvious consequences are $ debasement and price inflation, unaffordable housing etc, but they've kept the music on for now. recessions seem to need a catalyst which i thought were the bank failures but they stepped in with BTFP
federal debt and interest expense % of budget are becoming a major problem as James has pointed out which means ever more debasement
