How was the knowledge base of recession indicators in 2000 and 2007? With this yield conversion and everyone aware of the sell off after rate cuts…why not go short the market right now? It seems too easy, right? Is this time different because of the advent of financial education via the internet? Or should I just be shorting? Asking for a friend
Discussion
this has been a really tough one - what seemed like a well telegraphed recession from a major hiking cycle, inverted yield curve and bank failures hasnt played out yet due to printing, helicopter money and massive fiscal deficit spend.
obvious consequences are $ debasement and price inflation, unaffordable housing etc, but they've kept the music on for now. recessions seem to need a catalyst which i thought were the bank failures but they stepped in with BTFP
federal debt and interest expense % of budget are becoming a major problem as James has pointed out which means ever more debasement