Not until after you see things get really crazy which I don’t even think we’ve seen much of yet. Let’s say we’re at 5% I wouldn’t expect it until 12-18 months after we’ve hit 100% on this bubble
Discussion
I know you don’t prescribe to the power law model (yet), but it’s not out of the question even tho I don’t think we will go that low
What’s the top price for that date?
There isn’t one.
The power law model just projects the trend line (fair price), understanding that it can be below or above depending on market conditions (bull vs bear market).
The bottom price is an estimate that Giovanni created from historical data, which has held up really well. I think the only time it went below it momentarily was in March 2020.
As for movements above the trend line, it’s really educated guesses based on previous bull phases’ standard deviation moves.