quantum is never going to happen, just relax
Discussion
It's already happening. Not at a cryptographically relevant level, but it will eventually get there.
I’ve actually seen, the further I dig into it, that the apparent “progress” is essentially a collection of tricks to appear to factor much larger and larger numbers, only to break it down and realize the genuine entropy in the problem being solved is virtually no different than it was 10 years ago.
The highest *genuine* attempt to factor a number is apparently the number 35… and it didn’t actually work
I remember that you mentioned the 35 number on your podcast on it was illuminating. Makes me think this Quantum FUD is a Psych-Op.
There is a lot of grift happening in the QC space, just as in the AI space. That doesn't mean we won't eventually figure it out. Just because it won't be solved next year, doesn't mean it won't be solved in 5,10, or 20 years. If we wait until after it's solved, it's too late. A proper fork will likely take a year or two. Signal is already quantum resistant. More things will move in this direction, including TLS. It would be a mistake to be the only public key cryptographic system that doesn't adapt.
Of course, but it’s also possible that the form of computing doesn’t exponentially scale either, fundamentally. It seems all the “apparent” scaling has also been just using traditional computing to imitate quantum to make it look like qubits are scaling exponentially like traditional computing.
It’s very possible, that like dozens of other styles of computing that have been tried, where we have found that the only one that scales exponentially was digital computing (von Neumann).
I think because we desperately want to apply the lens of digital computing onto quantum, since it’s the one that has become ubiquitous, we forget that there were dozens of other types of computing that were tried and all hit impassable walls. They could never make general purpose compute, and the best they ever achieved were extremely limited uses that digital computing quickly outpaced due to its simply capacity to scale exponentially.
And when all our major WC progress seems to be us attempting to attach it to tradition computing via “virtual qubits” but they still just can’t factor anything with more than 2 or 3 bits worth of genuine entropy, that sounds like a “we must have an apparent order of magnitude scaling to get our next round of funding, so make it happen” sort of situation to me.
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In other words, there’s nothing wrong with preparing, the asymmetric cost of not having “insurance” on this issue is too great to not at least explore all options. But it absolutely is not an inevitability, and the world is FULL of bullshit and it needs to be looked at with an insanely skeptical eye. 10x that skepticism when the proposed solution demands that we **preemptively** freeze innocent peoples bitcoin to “save everyone” from it.
I understand it's very different and that it isn't likely to replace non-quantum computing in our lifetimes, if ever. It doesn't need to replace general computing to threaten public key crypto. It just needs to scale up in qubits and preferably remain stable. There's a lot of very smart people working only on this and with basically unlimited funding. What's commercially available is likely not even the bleeding edge, given the intelligence applications.
I'll agree that CRQC it's not absolutely inevitable. However, nobody can claim it's impossible either. It would be hard to even prove it doesn't already exist somewhere.
There's already relevant non-QC attacks against P2PKH. If they're not moving them to SegWit, they're already at risk. If a fork is propsed and they still don't move, that's on them. I would like to know how many coins/wallets are affected, if anyone can answer that.
you can't prove your bullshit quantum resistant cryptography are safe either, animal
It's not my cryptography. You could do like Signal and layer existing algo and quantum resistant algo.
Is animal supposed to be an insult? We are all animals.