Hrmmm....
"Every wargame that we conducted back in the intelligence community ended up in a nuclear war.
There was an escalation ladder. And the Russians have mapped that out in the course of twenty
years, and we are on it right now." -Rebekah Koffler, military intelligence analyst,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFOodusuoP4
Can't they play out a wargame scenario that doesn't end in a nuclear war? What is wrong with them?
Of course they can, but the idea is to use what you know of the other side's decision-makers, culture and situation.
I expect if Putin were somehow gullible enough to sign a Minsk 3, HE'D have a nonzero risk of being found underneath a high window one morning. In that situation, its predictable that he (and his subordinates) would prefer to err in the other direction...
Minsk 3. Yeah, that will never happen.
Was it Obama who recognized that Russia's strategic interest in Ukraine will always surpass America's? Did that change with resources found in the Donbass and shell/chevron/rosemont-seneca/burisma/state-street/blackrock? Is the strategic interest at such parity that neither side will back down from this game of chicken?
I'm pretty sure humanity will be massively wiped out by some disaster or another. We grew far too fast and our technology has advanced super fast too. We are living in a very aberrant state without any long-term proof of stability/survivability.
I fear there are multiple games of chicken being played concurrently, and we the public don't know half the players.
