And why would miners switch if they get paid more from those pools?
Will miners switch if they are personally not effected by certain censored transactions?
Probably not for both questions
Nothing is stopping that.
What is stopping two ASIC manufacturers from stealth mining with newer ASICs and selling them a year or two later to the public (as they are known to do)? What about nation states gag ordering and covertly coercing or paying to get them before the public?
Nothing is gaurunteed. There is only potential and incenctive.
It's easier to control specific-use limited supply ASICs than general purpose consumer CPUs that are already all around us. Everyone knows why you are buying an ASIC. No one knows why you are buying a CPU.