Some 10 days ago I shared with a friend this thought.

"I think there is a dossier in US agencies that covers the possibility for European countries to actually become part of the US, in one way or another. Maybe not literally US States, but more than the fiction we have now. And I think the timespan is the end of this decade.

It's about cultural assimilation, that's been going on for the better part of a century now.

Germany has completely lost direction and purpose, while France, despite its ambitions and efforts, is hitting a wall.

Other Western countries are too old and too weak to do anything that matters. I believe they want someone to take care of them. Eastern countries finally would welcome it, mostly to avoid more problem with Russia.

Empires are built over time. When the Arabs came out of the deserts in the 600s, they did militarily conquer the better part of the 'world' in a few decades, but people did not become Muslim, even in close places like Egypt, for centuries.

We live in a moment of challenged hegemony, where America's rivals are trying to 'speak up.' But not only is the US still the global number one power, as they have their navy and their bases a few kilometers from China, Russia, and Iran, but also America's fundamentals are still stronger than those of their rivals.

I think we're going to see what, historically speaking, is going to be the peak of the Empire. More assimilation of countries that call themselves allies but are, in fact, clientes — in the Latin meaning — if not provinces.

And don't let me start with soft power and other parts of the world. What is current Argentina momentum if not a surrender to US hegemony? Or Evangelical growth against Catholic in Brasil?"

That was it, más o menos.

Now the new administration — not even seated yet — is already talking about taking control of Panama, Greenland, and Canada. This is going to pave the way for Europe in many ways.

Just to be clear: it's not the Trump administration itself that is creating this. It's America's momentum, which is deeply rooted in population and acts through the millions of people working in federal agencies. The administration is part of that, and if the interests match, the process is sped up, which is what we're seeing now. The first Trump administration was in a clash with other federal agencies, and it went as we know. Now they seem much more aligned.

America has decided, and there seems to be nothing that can stop it now.

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I remember I did see it - or at least part of it - back when it came out.

It was fascinating, but I never understood exactly what was the point and now I get it less than ever.

Yes: civilizations copy each other, they assimilate and mutate other cultures into some new blend that become the new canon, and the cycle repeats. With them same cycle happens to religions and ideologies which are just TOOLS used to achieve power and greatness, never the source of anything.

Yes, there are powerful people and families that work together and lobby for decades and generation to shape the world somehow. Most of the time, they fail. They can lead and manipulate but only if they find the right alliances (in other elite) as well as the proper way to narrate to get the people support. But people are stupid? Maybe, but I wouldn't be so sure about that.

My point is: when I see documentaries like that one, I think that's not a good angle to use to try and interpret what is going on and why. It's not false or anything. Just a way of analysing facts that leads... nowhere.

Following that path - a simplistic example you shall forgive me - one ends up believing that is Donald J. Trump being elected president that made the price of Bitcoin raise last fall.

It's not. It is a "coincidence", or an alignment. We all know that Bitcoin has far deeper root that whoever sit in whatever office, anytime.

Same is for the rest of history. Long term movements belongs to populations. Not in the sense of "power to the people" but that in the end, without those people, nobody goes anywhere.

Napoleon did not invade Russia alone. He managed to have support of France people and half million soldiers walked with him across Europe. You do not do that by scamming people. That's real support. Stupid? Ignorant? Violent? Whatever, but real support.

I thought that timestamp of the movie that I linked fitted what you were talking about, essentially the one government...

I agree with what you say although sometimes people are indeed fooled and support on mass the wrong person or idea... See Hitler...

We disagree in "fooled". People do what they want and need and are much smarter than we like to believe.

I'm afraid but I don't share what seem to be the common idea of stupid masses. It's a very socialist perspective: "People are good but they (tens of millions) are all easily fooled by a bad guy with a few rich and powerful friends."

I reject this perspective in all of histories, everywhere.

But yeah, the documentary kind of fits and far from me was rejecting it. I just took the opportunity to expand on the topic.

I appreciate the optimism in humanity 🧡

I am by nature less optimistic but not completely pessimistic... Maybe not really stupid but we don't know what we don't know so it is easy to influence each other. That happens in small and big scales from a product to a war. Not really a conspiracy just incentives. Not everyone is good and not everyone is bad. So when humans go to war they all think they are the good guys...

Lo he leído completo. Gracias por tu aportación, Daniele. Sin embargo, no le das a la Hispanidad ni un atisbo de irrupción en la escena internacional según tu hipótesis acerca de lo que va a ocurrir en el futuro próximo. ¿Realmente no consideras que vaya a ocurrir nada distinto con la Hispanidad en el futuro?

Un gran saludo #hola #español

Thanks for reading and for taking time to write.

I apologise but i can't speak or write fluently in Spanish so I'll answer in English but I'm comfortable in reading your Spanish.

What do you mean with "Hispanidad" exactly?

You refer to the number of Hispanics growing in US as citizens? Or if something else, please elaborate. I'm interested in a conversation.

Gracias por tu respuesta, Daniele. Por Hispanidad me refería al conjunto de países de habla hispana, herederos de las estructuras del antiguo imperio español que estuvo vigente desde el siglo XVI hasta el siglo XVIII.

Nadie habla de ello hoy en día, pero la potencia del español y de la hispanidad como estructura social, religiosa y cultural no es algo que se deba pasar por alto. Su fragmentación actual y, por consecuencia, su falta de alineamiento jurídico, militar y económico es lo que la aleja de ser tenida en cuenta como actor relevante en la escena mundial.

Me preguntaba cuál sería tu posición al respecto.

Gracias de antemano, Daniele.

#hola #español

Clear.

First a quick disclaimer.

Most if not all I say on these topics - geopolitics, history, ethnography etc... is what I try my best to extrapolate studying what other analysts research, analyse and write. Nothing to little is original. But nothing comes from newspapers as well 😉

You already answered yourself. The key word here "fragmentation". But is also "remnant" of an Empire. So it's UK, so is France, so is Germany.

To have geopolitical power and influence, something must be a Subject.

In this game, subjects are Nations, which in this era are mostly Nation-States.

Nations is a people that live together in a specific geographic space for a long enough time and manage stay together, build a country, and with time even a civilization in and of itself.

Hispanics are "just" an ethnicity. It would be like saying "why not Germans"?

Because germans do not exist as a Nation. Germanic people are in many places. US first and dominant ethnic group (since almost 100 years) is still germans (will be hispanics in a not so distant future).

Damn, even Germany itself is not a Nation, but 3 different nations coexisting in one large State. That anomaly is a reality because Germany is not a sovereign country, but has been invaded and conquered in 1945 and is now in the availability of the US.

So, if you want "my" take, the hispanic Nation that will become a major global player a few years/decades down the road, is Mexico.

But that's another story and I'll leave it for another day.

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I think there is a dossier in US agencies that covers the possibility for European countries to actually become part of the US, in one way or another