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I was kind of expecting the construction/trade labor job market to "stabilize" at some point. Meaning supply/demand would drive trade work prices up. I can't stop hearing employers complain about lack of slightly skilled and somewhat reliable. I'm offered laborer jobs regularly but the pay just isn't there.

When I was doing construction at 17-18 yo, I was making $18.50/hr + 1.5-2x overtime (working two jobs 70hrs/week). I was was not skilled in the trade. Skilled guys on the job were getting ~$25.

The best pay I'm seeing for actually skilled labor now is $20-25/hr. 8-9 years later. Some management positions are capping at $25/hr + OT. These guys only make money running 70+ hour work weeks. Some of my friends are pulling 14s or risk losing their jobs making $22.25/hr.

I got tired of being tired all the time. I just slept on my days off. When you get home, you shower, sleep, then wake up and do it again. Your sore all the time.

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Discussion

The Beave 1y ago

Yes.

That was my life. I refuse to do that anymore. But... If I don't get a pretty friggin big raise in a month or so, I'm moving on. I kinda need more fiat to get to where I want to be. It sucks... But if I have to work those kinds of days again for a few years, I can.

ChipTuner 1y ago

Yeah. If it comes down to it, I suppose I will too. I know there are ways around it if you are smart enough, you know. Were you ever a pipeline guy? I know a good amount of union pipline welders.

The Beave 1y ago

Nope. Never did pipe work, never joined a union.

Laeserin 1y ago

It's the same in logistics and increasingly also everywhere else. That's why our butcher keeps reducing store hours.

Wage prices are sticky because non-wage prices are inflationary, and wages are easier to negotiate because it's a purely local market, while being harder to offload because of employment contract law.

So, there's a shortage of labor and declining real wages, simultaneously. 😬

Companies are folding under the pressure.

Laeserin 1y ago

It's really bad, in the hotel and restaurant business. Potential customers are broke, not enough staff to maintain normal business operations, can't afford to pay more because of thin margins...

ChipTuner 1y ago

I figured normal supply/demand logic would apply but boy am I wrong. I know it has to settle somewhere but I wasn't expecting it. I'm seeing all sized businesses fold left and right, but I know some (the ones my friends work at) expanding at huge rates, apparently a very high profit margins, usually around 45-50% on parts, and If I had to guess around 30% on labor.

Financed one-day bathroom installs/remodels apparently is where the money is. People will finance $8k on average (so I'm told) in some of the poorest areas to have a bathroom remodeled in a day. They can go up to $25-30k for a 2-day job. I'm told just about every job is financed.

In the auto parts resale business we went from about 30% margins to less than 10% after pricing increases, credit card fees, shipping problems, marketing budget increases and so on. Wholesalers started standing up eCommerce stores and vertical integration competition tactics. Reducing margin and selling below MAP pricing to force customers to their stores. While even if we could reduce pricing, wed lose all margin trying to compete.

Pricing changed so rapidly, one of my first software deployments was fetching realtime pricing from Shopify and other APIs.

Laeserin 1y ago

I read a German article, recently, that said new building was down and remodeling was up, as people couldn't afford to move "up". Fits with your description.

ChipTuner 1y ago

>Wage prices are sticky because non-wage prices are inflationary, and wages are easier to negotiate because it's a purely local market, while being harder to offload because of employment contract law.

That makes sense. Hmmm

Bill Cypher 1y ago

Employers being high time preference. My little corner of the labor market is just a couple old farts managing and doing everything because they were raised to not demand respect for themselves and a bunch of kids who know nothing with high turnover.

Any sort of personal growth or promotion pipeline is dead. Any professional growth in the middle is met with "I can't afford to pay you for that so leave or get overworked and under paid." The only way to get promoted is for someone to die. There is no path to a meaningful raise.

ChipTuner 1y ago

It's a crazy time to be alive. Never saw this coming

Bill Cypher 1y ago

I think often about how I was talked out of high self employment high local demand trades when planning my career. If I could talk to my younger self I think I would advise electrician and start your own business ASAP. If I had realized cars would become computers overnight I might have picked mechanic, harder to start your own shop than electrician though.

ChipTuner 1y ago

I was in automotive tech (older vehicles) for the past 7 years. Shops that had found good labor prior to 2020 are doing great. Repair only though. When modifying the EPA poses a huge risk to your business and personal well being. That's mostly why I'm out of automotive.

Bill Cypher 1y ago

All my vehicles are modified yet I have not added anything to make more power. (arguable, I did an intercooler on my 3.5 ecoboost f150 to reduce temps while towing not to make power)

Modern cars are plenty powerful, you'll get more out of tires, brakes, and suspension than 10hp from an arguably legal bolt on power adder.

ChipTuner 1y ago

In my field (diesel) we were making 100hp over stock just in a calibration change. But yes, some modern vehicles make more than double the torque over what they did a little over a decade ago.