Alright bros, let's do this. I have never and don't usually talk price action, but I want to now because it ties very closely in with the future of Bitcoin and a lot of things I've been talking about over the years with regard to the game theory of bitcoin and it's long term viability.

Bitcoin is headed for a price collapse very soon, but this one is very different from previous bear markets. Here's the timeline that I expect to see:

1) Bitcoin drops below 100k USD by the end of January. The 4 year cycle may be self fulfilling, maybe not, but we are at the end of one already. Expecting such a blatantly apparent pattern to the point that people treat it like terra firma to not happen this time because reasons is as delusional as expecting the price of some shitcoin to go up forever because tokenomics. Even if I'm wrong, it's bad calculus to bet against it.

2) MicroStrategy begins to liquidate to cover investors. MicroStrategy has been leveraging their Bitcoin purchases by selling shares who's valuation is entirely based on their Bitcoin holdings, then buying Bitcoin with them, thus raising the price of their shares, and on and on over and over. This cannot go on forever. They are the largest non-satoshi holder, so expect this to be an earthquake.

3) ETFs begin to see massive outflows. People love to talk about Bitcoin ETFs as if they're guaranteed demand. They're not. They can smooth volatility, but outflows can happen as easily as inflows, they're speculative also, people will buy and sell them with the price. If the above 2 things happen, this will too.

If all this happens, then of course Bitcoin's price will drop significantly. Nothing new. So how is this one different?

Well first, it breaks all the prominent models, stock to flow, power law, all broken if Bitcoin peaks around where it is now. Stock to flow is a great idea, but it neglects one fundamental measure, demand. I can have an nft with a stock to flow of infinity, if there's no demand for it it's worthless. Demand for bitcoin cannot be just taken for granted, and if you're serious about trying to find a real world value for it you can't do that.

Second, I talk a bit around here about how Bitcoin's value is its security, and the supply cap means security is doomed to failure and therefore so is it's utility and price. If you're interested in my takes on that check out my public bookmarks. I thought before that Bitcoin had one more cycle in it before that process began to become apparent, but now I'm convinced that this is the one and there are a few key indicators.

First, Bitcoin dropped below the previous all time high in the last bear market. This has never happened before. Second, Bitcoin reached a new all time high before the last halving, this has also never happened before. Third, this bull market, percentage wise, has been incredibly lackluster compared to previous ones. These are all signs that Bitcoin is experiencing peak hype by speculators, which let's be honest, almost all of you are. The act of predicting the future and making decisions based on that is called speculating.

Finally though, and this is the real big one, block space demand is not going up, hash rate is not going up. These are very very bad signs. All previous cycles saw transaction fees skyrocket and hash rate multiply, but not this one. These are signs that the security of the network is decaying. These are indicators that my thesis, that the security of the network will collapse as a result of capped supply, is beginning to occur. And Bitcoin's value, what we are trying to find when we price it, comes only from it's security.

So I fully expect that after this peak, which either has recently happened or is going to happen next month, Bitcoin will enter a decade long bear market. I am going to get a lot of hate for saying this, but you always get hate at 6am when you tell everyone you're out of blow and its time to go home. The party can't go on forever.

I expect there to be a lot of "what happened?"s and "I don't believe in the mission anymore" and the like. But not everyone will give up, there's those of us that still understand the true value in money like this. So I expect a decoupling of the crypto markets from Bitcoin. I expect some things to begin to have their own market movements independent of Bitcoin. I don't know all what, but from where I sit basically the only big blockchains that have the utility for that are Monero and Ethereum, I don't think it's a bad bet to assume they'll be in that club.

I do expect, when the damage is surveyed and with the clarity of hindsight, someone will try to fix the problems in Bitcoin that will lead to this, after whatever infighting inevitably happens. I do not know whether it will succeed. I hope it does. It's not going to happen next year, I expect that it won't happen until the next all time high doesn't arrive.

That of course doesn't mean there won't be ups and downs over the next decade. There will be, of course. But I expect no new all time highs for 10 years.

I expect the governments to come and tell us they have to ban and regulate this technology to protect investors. We cannot let them do that. The only blockchain community that I know of that outright refuses that offer is the Monero community. I hope we see success there.

I'm not just some doomsayer or naysayer. I love bitcoin. I'm not a trader or a number go up guy. Try to find as detailed an explanation as I've given here and elsewhere from the likes of Cramer and Schiff. I'm actually explaining what I see. Those guys will of course gloat, but they don't have a clue. I hope their gloating leads the governments to dismiss us again, we are gonna need it. But there have been serious architectural problems with Bitcoin, and some serious refusal to see what's in front of us, that inevitably led here.

I'd say I hope I'm wrong, but I don't. I'm certain I'm not. Even if I'm wrong this time, what I've warned of is coming. But I don't hope I'm wrong because something better can come after. Not better *than* Bitcoin, better *for* bitcoin. And at this point I don't believe there's any other way for that to happen, and I don't believe it's avoidable. And so, I firmly believe, we are on to the next chapter of the story. Let's make it a good one.