I won't argue against that. If you know what you're doing you can have strong privacy on Lightning.

I wouldn't recommend it to the average user though because of what is required.

Because of it's horrid UX in practice 90% aren't using Lightning privately. They're using custodians like Wallet of Satoshi, or to a lesser degree LSPs like ACINQ with Phoenix, that can surveil them.

Defaults and simplicity go a long way. And I don't even think Monero is particularly great in that regard, but relative to privacy with Lightning it is.

When the improvements in the next 5 years come to Lightning, and it gets more adoption, I'll reevaluate again

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ill argue against that.

a simple swap is likely totally insufficient.

I assumed he meant swap to Lightning and then spend it on Lightning. But yea if it's just a naive swap back and forth that doesn't really do much.

And even then it's difficult to evaluate the level of privacy you gain on Lightning because it's hard to quantify (because of things like large routing nodes being able to map large areas of the network since many payments are going through them). General public doesn't have that info, but those large nodes do.