Yes, there will be many potholes along the way:
- expected EU retaliatory measures, and others
- 2Q pre-announcements and downgrades, followed by artificially deflated earnings and down forecasts
- potential exogenous events (e.g. blow ups, EM instability)
- Apr macro data trickling in May
- revisions to GDP and recession calls
- Fed struggles, maybe even Trump jumps over the fence and takes over
- cabinet reshuffles (eg. Lutnick or Navarro ejected, Bessent runs away)
You say "there was a mismatch between what was promised and what is possible". I agree but not in terms of pain, but of outcomes. I fear that the rebalancing will never arrive or will be smaller than expected. For example, no company is going to commit to big capex investments if things change in 2-4 years. That won't stop them from announcing future investments of "hundreds of billions" as the Admin says. Like DOGE, it all feels like a TV reality show where capturing attention with glitter and drama, day by day, aims to mask a much more complicated and different reality. A reality where real change usually only happens with constant effort and discipline (not edicts and pyres).
By the end of this process there will be a reconning, and the blue collar vote that propelled him will turn to a more extreme and protectionist flavor. Under this scenario, BTC, an orthogonal bet to the system is a good diversifying strategy.
BTW guys, this nostr thing is an awesome therapeutical machine! Thanks!!
