A lot of market participants expect capitulation from Trump, but imo the more likely outcome is little/no capitulation, at least for a while, but instead attempts at shifting the blame of the costs and some mild verbal capitulations to calm market a bit. Like it's the Fed's fault for not cutting rates, and things like that.
Rebalancing decades of imbalanced trade policy does not happen without pain. The issue is that the administration marketed it as being relatively painless, as any politicians would. And many voters bought into it. So it's not to an easy problem, and it's a noble goal, but there was a mismatch between what was promised and what is possible, as is often the case.
Some interesting semi-capitulation points to watch: will Bessent maintain the high rate of Tbill issuance for liquidity that he criticized Yellen for? Will Trump shake out his inner circle and use several of them as scapegoats?
