I wonder how many tx’s Lightning removes from on-chain Bitcoin every day and how much pressure it’s taken off the mempool, and what effect on sats/vb that has.
Has anyone ever been able to quantify these figures or create some kind of estimate?
Lightning also enables us to do things on-chain never could have like Nostr zaps and micro txs, but that’s a separate thing.
That's an interesting point. I've no idea but as you say, it must've had a big impact on tx costs, on-chain🙏🏻.
I wonder how much the ETFs take pressure off the main chain. I’m not a fan of the ETFs but I have to admit that it likely makes it cheaper for me to use Bitcoin.
Yeah to some extent ETFs have to take pressure off main chain but I think that’s looking at a smaller pool of buyers who are buying much larger amounts. I think lightning would be the exact opposite - many more users it keeps off chain transacting much smaller amounts.
I will say though, NGU does scale Bitcoin in several ways. It’s not the end-all scaling solution but it is one and it will keep working.
The most important imo
I wonder if the bitcoin held by etfs will ever be sold or circulated again
probably already is, and a lot of it isn't actually being held but hypothecated
Agreed. And eventually it’ll be spread back out and be held by plebs in cold storage
But how? Are etfs required to sell btc proportionate to etf shares sold?
From my understanding, when shares are sold, bitcoin is rebalanced. ETFs require a 1:1 balance to shareholders.
Someone please correct me if I’m wrong
yes, this is what an ETF means, they have to aim to hold the stock that they have users claiming to, minus the margin, and i'm pretty sure that ETFs are allowed to fractional on this shit, they don't have to have that balance exactly within some time window, idk what that is, but it's all bullshit, they only hold enough to disburse to the withdrawals most of the time, and they are not really held to the same standard that you and me are if they don't have it when it's asked for, so eventually it is a bank run yawn
really, i seriously doubt they make different rules for bitcoin ETF than any other
the biggest difference with bitcoin is that they don't even have to be an ETF, they can be a bank, the asset has no physical substance and a negligable time of delivery, so it's retardation from the very base of the idea
this is fiat finance business... some things are "legal" that are not moral
almost certainly they are betting on the demand for sell to be at some level on a statistical average and so they are not going to neccessarily maintain balances that *should* be there and at some point it can happen that more withdrawals are demanded than they actually have in UTXOs
that's why you don't use them, if you understand fiat finance, you want to save in bitcoin, you buy and hold bitcoin in keys you control physically
That would be good for bitcoin. I'm just worried its locked up in there forever, never comes out, then gets converted into a bitcoin bank in the future. If the etfs are fractional reserve-ing on the sly, then that will hurt them more than bitcoin in the long run.
I wouldn't dream of buying an etf, bitcoin or otherwise. Mega systemic risk, I don't approve.
Like, what if people sell etf shares but the fund or fund owner keeps the btc in preparation for loaning it as a bank, instead of selling it on chain. That would be bad.
faking ownership of bitcoin is always a problem
many exchanges have done this and the real stock of bitcoin in the market and on offer is actually unknown because they are all lying ass dogs
this is why, when the actual demand gets hard, the price moves fast, because much of what was stopping the price moving up, previously, was paper, hot air.
I'm not sure that's actually a problem, if it causes banks to blow up. Banks are predators... I hope the lie about their reserves then panic and burn, and let the btc run free in the process
something that might help to calm your mind about this
if they lose the coins, good, our coins become worth more
if they sold the coins beforehand, and fail because they did that, whatever, that's why the price didn't move
yeah, they aren't gonna lose the bitcoins, or lock them up, same thing i guess
more likely they are gonna rob people by playing the margin game, the rule in fiat finance, how little can you actually hold so you reduce your downside risk while avoiding the bankrun risk
totally missing the point of what it's for, but ok, it's good that bitcoin has finally reached the point where the suits are trying to make money out of it
that means we are big biznis
Some will yea but some of it might not if the ETFs actually last
If the ETFs are operating legally then all they do is execute buy and sell orders for their clients and custody funds that are not sold.
So if their clients sell then they go sell the corresponding amount of sats at sold exchange rate (that they already bought previously) and settle in cash w their clients after fees.
But are they moving sats around the main chain? My guess is no
I’m sure they just do net settlements one way or the other at regular intervals.
My point is if all clients sold all their ibit shares for cash then the ibit ETF would be legally obligated to sell all their bitcoin holdings on behalf of their clients. They’re suppose to be a proxy for their clients and that’s it. So (again if operating legally) what their clients do determines if they hodl or not.
Yea that makes sense. I don’t see why they’d sell if it’s performing well so I think it’ll keep a lot of transaction volume off the main chain
River did a study on it: https://river.com/learn/files/river-lightning-report-2023.pdf
A year ago they estimated that there were now more transactions on lighting than the base chain.
