I remain of the opinion that the last cycle's ATH was cut short, primarily because of China's ban of #Bitcoin mining... right in the middle of the 2021 parabolic run higher.

Had this not occurred, in my opinion, bitcoin price would have likely reached approximately $125k in November 2021.

In light of this--and compared with past cycles of reaching 50-60% of the prior ATHs at the time of the latest #halving, then it is wouldn't be unreasonable for bitcoin's price to reach 50%-60% of $125k by halving day, or $62,500 to $75,000.

This would crush my current target of $45k, but would make sense, in light of the *abnormal* 2021 bull market.

(Not individual investment advice. Just my opinion. I am almost certainly wrong.)