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I remain of the opinion that the last cycle's ATH was cut short, primarily because of China's ban of #Bitcoin mining... right in the middle of the 2021 parabolic run higher.

Had this not occurred, in my opinion, bitcoin price would have likely reached approximately $125k in November 2021.

In light of this--and compared with past cycles of reaching 50-60% of the prior ATHs at the time of the latest #halving, then it is wouldn't be unreasonable for bitcoin's price to reach 50%-60% of $125k by halving day, or $62,500 to $75,000.

This would crush my current target of $45k, but would make sense, in light of the *abnormal* 2021 bull market.

(Not individual investment advice. Just my opinion. I am almost certainly wrong.)

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Discussion

UNLICENSED MONEY TRANSMITTER 1y ago

n=2

Toxic Bitcoiner 1y ago

+FTX rehypothecation. Could also say ICOs was a pseudo-rehypothecation for 2017. “Where does it come from this cycle, if at all?” is the trillion sat question.

Knightstr 1y ago

Maybe this is how the government deals with bitcoin siphoning large amounts of wealth away from the financial system on 4 year cycles. When it starts getting good, force regulatory action upon the market to cut off the momentum and kill the hype

jpfrogmd 🏴‍☠️⚡️ 1y ago

Just swapped all my CME funds for 🌽.

Bert 1y ago

During this period exchanges were active that would sell bitcoin to clients without actually buying bitcoin. As became clear in the lawsuit with FTX (when a customer bought bitcoin, FTX would actually buy Solana). The price suppression of bitcoin with exchanges might still be around. Do you know any proper chain analysts that can create overviews regarding flows on exchanges? We should be able to see mismatches between volumes per exchange. Next few years we might again see exchanges caught when they can't deliver their amounts...

Lyn Alden 1y ago

China mining ban was likely part of it but I think it was secondary.

The divergence of capital toward altcoin projects and crypto startup equity was the bigger factor imo. And divergence toward meme stonks, popular big retail tech stocks like Tesla, etc.

jpfrogmd 🏴‍☠️⚡️ 1y ago

this was my line of thinking as well, but I’m regarded…now I feel much better about myself seeing you write this 🤣

less 1y ago

I don’t disagree with you and almost added that to the post as well. But I still favor the China ban (and resultant 50% drop in hash rate) as the primary driver.

Of course, we’ll never know the answer. But it’s fun to speculate.

The upside is that I think—contrary to the 2020-21 bull market—most price predictions will actually be too low. People may not be bullish enough for what’s coming…

Nice and Kind Vic 1y ago

I think you are partly right, but disagree strongly on the china mining ban as a cause as that actually bolstered bitcoin. To me the primary cause of lower ATH was VC funds, FTX, BlockFi rehypothecation and all related (DCG, 3 arrows, etc).

Its clear FTX sold paper suppressing about 25% and the peak should have been over 85k.

60% of that puts a halving price around 51k

Andrej designSats 1y ago

Why wasnt the 2017 over the top instead?

twentyone 1y ago

Nobody knows what the price will be on a specific day. But it will go up forever when measured in a debasing currency. That’s all anyone needs to know

Bison 1y ago

Hindsight 🦀

BitLo 1y ago

I agree the peak of 2021 was cut short. No idea where the price peaks by the halving, but medium to long term I am very, very bullish. The .625 fib is around 49-50k. Break through that and look out.

BitLo 1y ago

Just looked at historical weekly closes, and today's weekly close of $48,270 is the highest weekly close since late December 2021. Buuulllisshhh.

shyguy 1y ago

Yeah it's possible that the mean is up near the highs at this point. A possibilty worth respecting considering how undervalued Bitcoin still is at these prices today.