Subnostr

So 2 in 20 * 1 in 4 + 1 in 20 * 2 in 4, those include the perfect roll but you must respect order of operations.

All that math to arrive at a round 5%.

Would you believe this is still incorrect

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I might, I only took stats 1 and that was many years ago.

its interesting to see how you're thinking through the problem though

Doing the wrong math or doing the math wrong?

I know I'm close enough to make the informed decision I don't like those odds.

Go back to this. Its close, but not quite how the odds are statistically calculated

So 2 in 20 * 1 in 4 +

..... 1 in 20 * 2 in 4, ....