Today it became clear to me why Nostr will never gain widespread adoption. It will never be as big as X or Insta. Why? It’s too complicated; its concepts are too specialized. This isn’t just about the UI/UX. Sure, that could be improved, but the technology and the overall concept are simply too advanced for most people.

Most people are straightforward; they want to be guided by the hand and receive a lot of reward (i.e., endorphins) for little effort. Nostr doesn’t offer that. First, the reward here isn’t an immediate endorphin rush; you have to work for it over time. Most people lack the patience and determination required for that. Second, the whole concept of decentralization, key pairs, and rewards in Sats is just not easy to understand. The gap between ease and rewards is too big for about 80%-90% of population.

That’s why Nostr will always remain a niche. Just like weblogs and Tor. It will have its fixed place, but it will never be truly popular or widely adopted. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. That's Darwinism, survival of the fittest, elitism, top 10% stuff.

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Discussion

do you think other platforms like the bird app are profitable?

Right now, they're not. They struggle a lot.

just like the US military the job the bird app is not to be profitable... it is a weapon.

so when, hopefully, the perpetual fiat machine funding those weapons stop everything will change... and Nostr will be there.

Exactly, they'll keep it alive no matter what.

nostr elite gang

True. Most folks just want simple tools that stimulate pleasure from likes. Once they go after influence though they eventually find out the fiat game is rigged. That's when a chance at education can work. Still, many are not interested in systems/protocols, and have the ability to think in high time preferences. The pull back into the fiat apps is also a struggle as the luxury of ease and community for confirmation bias is a power Tech/Empire will continue to consolidate.

I still think there is a bullish case and big future for nostr. But that is for another post...

That sounds about right, but does not take into account the tendency of big tech to overstep with their desire to control and thus forcefully push people out.

I'd also expect that devs will gradually shrink the UX gap between nostr and big tech social media.

I know what you mean. But I've seen too many times that people who were banned started over from scratch with a new account.