Judge by his actions.

There is a chance he has understood the jeff booth version of bitcoins future, the coming productivity explosion, abundance all around after we cross this valley.

I have not seen him take any actions that would put bitcoin or related technology in jeopardy, including nostr. From a distance it looks like he cracks open doors far before we need the enter. He clearly bought twitter to manipulate narratives. Look at the most recent, automatically revealing people's account location. He gets to have plausible deniability at the same time bad actors worldwide.

His products on the other hand are very centralizing, star link tesla and now always online humanoid robots. Maybe these are a result of how to be profitable in the fiat system?

He clearly has long term goals, most publicly stated but generally i believe he hides behind the truth.

I would say %46 - %48 good, based solely on his subtle conveniently timed overton actions. He would prefer this estimate to be a safe %50.

Good being anything contributing to the long term robustness of our species, more decentralization, property rights, freedom of information flows.

You're right! He is definitely not a nikola tesla.