No one wants to hear this as they're scrolling through Bitcoin YouTube searching for confirmation
But the reality is that NO ONE HAS A CLUE where the price is going
Run as fast as you can from anyone telling you that Bitcoin will be $____ by ________
I’ve learned the hard way.. I got a Bitcoin loan to buy more bitcoin in 2020 because S2FX model said Bitcoin was going to $100k by the end of the month.
It didn’t.. and I lost 80% of my entire stack trying to cover my loan LTV before it was margin called anyway.
Now I stay humble and stack sats. If it goes down it’s a blessing to stack more, if it goes up it’s worth more.
If any plans rely on the price being x by y, it’s not a good plan. Just stack as much as you can that you can happily not use for more than 4 years.
I liked the boating accident story better. But in the eyes 👀 of the IRS I am sure yours is more believable.
Unfortunately my dog eat my seed phrase.
Shit damn😳
Good luck on the road out of fiat man. We all take the hard path.
You kinda just contradicted yourself with the 4 years part, but yes I hear you.
Sorry it was 2021 and crashed, resulting in a margin call. If I had just hodled instead of trying to leverage my bitcoin on a sure thing I would be golden now 🥲
Power law theory will get a lot of people destroyed like S2FX did too.
Bitcoin follows the same mathematical structure seen in other transformative technologies: an S-curve governed by network effects and diffusion dynamics. In the early and middle phases of this curve, growth is dominated by Metcalfe-law scaling (value rising with the square of connected participants), reflexive feedback loops (price leads attention leads to adoption leads to infrastructure leads to price), and stochastic catalysts (halvings, liquidity shocks, regulatory moments, failures of legacy institutions).
When these mechanisms compound, the visible portion of the trajectory resembles a power-law trend, not because Bitcoin is inherently bound to a power law, but because a power law is what the accelerating region of an S-curve looks like when plotted over time. Observers misinterpret this visually smooth segment as a standalone mathematical regime, when in fact it is simply the early-to-middle adoption window common to telephones, the internet, mobile devices, and every other system shaped by positive network externalities.
As Bitcoin expands and matures, these same forces progressively transition it toward the inflection point of the S-curve: growth accelerates until the system becomes broadly integrated, after which marginal adoption slows and volatility compresses. The power law was never the fundamental model, it was only the visible slice of a longer, multi-phase adoption curve driven by network effects, reflexivity, and the probabilistic shocks unique to monetary technologies.
I'm proud to say, I've done nothing but buy and stack with no funny business. I've had to sell a bit to buy a truck, but what do you...
That's what Bitcoin is for.
To save and spend when needed.
Not to be traded or leveraged.
Debt is the enemy of sovereignty.
🫡 some lessons you have to learn the hard way.
Thank you for the generous zap! ⚡️
120k$ by December 21st 🤡
That’s the day I realised all models are wrong, and some are broken.
Take a loan now 😈
If you can get a fiat loan from a regular bank collateralized with say property. Then it's a no-brainer.
I was offered 2 small interest free loans (not really though, establishment fees equated to 2%), at a short 12 month and 2 year interval. I took them happily.
Just don't take on leverage with your Bitcoin as the collateral (say on an exchange) that is a recipe for getting rekt.
