Scenario 1: Governments Outlawing Bitcoin
Opposing Argument: Major governments will outlaw Bitcoin, driving it into the black market and replacing it with state-backed digital currency, rendering Bitcoin irrelevant.
Steelman Argument: It's true that the regulatory environment is an ever-present concern for decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin. Governments could indeed exert pressure through regulations or even outright bans. However, Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it resistant to control by any single government. While certain jurisdictions may limit or ban Bitcoin, it might thrive in others that see the strategic or economic advantages of a decentralized currency. Furthermore, the technical and philosophical underpinnings of Bitcoin mean it could continue to operate as a store of value or medium of exchange even if driven underground in certain areas. It may even stimulate innovation in privacy and decentralized finance, leading to more resilient and adaptive systems.
Scenario 2: Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin
Opposing Argument: Rapid advancements in superconductors and quantum computing might threaten Bitcoin's security sooner than anticipated, making it an unwise investment.
Steelman Argument: Quantum computing indeed represents a theoretical risk to Bitcoin, particularly concerning its public-key cryptography. If large-scale quantum computers become a reality, they might be able to break the cryptographic algorithms currently used in the Bitcoin network. However, the cryptographic community is actively researching post-quantum cryptography, and algorithms resistant to quantum attacks are under development. Furthermore, the Bitcoin protocol is not static; it can be updated to include quantum-resistant algorithms as the technology approaches practical viability. Transitioning to new cryptographic algorithms would be complex but not necessarily infeasible. While the threat is not to be dismissed, the collective interest in maintaining Bitcoin's security and the ability to adapt the protocol provide some measure of confidence in its resilience against this evolving technological landscape.