I’m talking about the timing and magnitudes of the overall 4 year cycle. We have had less than a handful. So there is literally NO statistical significance (ie math) in saying things like “we are already 3 months late”.
It would take a minimum of a few dozen cycles to glean that kind of rigorous analytical conclusion.
All we can say is, “gee, the last couple were like this, so maybe this one will be similar”
It’s literally throwing a dart at the board with one eye shut and the other blurry 😉
I say all this because the potential for getting reck’d using 3 cycles for data points and then trading off that is massive and I sense we will see it in real time the rest of this cycle.
Hypothetical example…..
“Bitcoin USUALLY tops out 15 months after halving and last cycle it only went to 3.5x previous cycle top before correcting 75 percent. THEREFORE, I will sell my bitcoin at 180-200k in Sept/Oct/Nov (when it gets there), because THE MATH says I will be able to buy it back at 50-60k in 2026/7”
Then the price goes to 250, 300, 350 and the statistically challenged Bitcoin maxi is freaking out and buys it back only to CREATE the top at 400/450 for this cycle before we retrace 60/5 percent back to his original sale approx 175 at the next cycle bottom.
I sense this exact example and many derivatives of it will occur over the next 12-18 months….
All because of THE MATH. Which of course (statistically speaking) was never math all along.
Too few (cycle) data points.
Thx for allowing me to rant. Felt good 🤣
Just look how different JUST the last TWO cycles were to thier predecessors.
2021/2 cycle high was 3.5x 2017/18
Yet 2017/18 was 20x 2013/4!!!!
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