2 (or 3 or 4 or 5) data points on cycle timing is wooooooooefully insufficient to draw these kind of conclusions.
Take a crash course (on line) in statistics. š š¤
PS
I only responded because so many intelligent bitcoiners fall for this and it always shocks me.
I did take a low level business statistics course at college but I feel like I'm trying to look at data with a limited tool set it's true.
I would like to know more about statistics. Could you recommend a low cost/free online course I could look at that? Would be greatly appreciated!
Yeah I agree, the bottoms have thousands of data points but the crazy tops only have a few. I am not as confident in my observations of the tops given the minimal data, so I'm generally more focused on finding trends in the bottom trend. I often post deeper analysis of the bottom trend.
For the tops, I mostly pay attention to any changes in long term trends which might indicate a new breakout top is forming. Currently the data seems to suggest we're in calm times with no risk of a breakout top followed by a bear crash, just standard minor market price volatility that is generally close to production cost.
Iām talking about the timing and magnitudes of the overall 4 year cycle. We have had less than a handful. So there is literally NO statistical significance (ie math) in saying things like āwe are already 3 months lateā.
It would take a minimum of a few dozen cycles to glean that kind of rigorous analytical conclusion.
All we can say is, āgee, the last couple were like this, so maybe this one will be similarā
Itās literally throwing a dart at the board with one eye shut and the other blurry š
I say all this because the potential for getting reckād using 3 cycles for data points and then trading off that is massive and I sense we will see it in real time the rest of this cycle.
Hypothetical exampleā¦..
āBitcoin USUALLY tops out 15 months after halving and last cycle it only went to 3.5x previous cycle top before correcting 75 percent. THEREFORE, I will sell my bitcoin at 180-200k in Sept/Oct/Nov (when it gets there), because THE MATH says I will be able to buy it back at 50-60k in 2026/7ā
Then the price goes to 250, 300, 350 and the statistically challenged Bitcoin maxi is freaking out and buys it back only to CREATE the top at 400/450 for this cycle before we retrace 60/5 percent back to his original sale approx 175 at the next cycle bottom.
I sense this exact example and many derivatives of it will occur over the next 12-18 monthsā¦.
All because of THE MATH. Which of course (statistically speaking) was never math all along.
Too few (cycle) data points.
Thx for allowing me to rant. Felt good š¤£
Just look how different JUST the last TWO cycles were to thier predecessors.
2021/2 cycle high was 3.5x 2017/18
Yet 2017/18 was 20x 2013/4!!!!
