Starting to think we won't have a breakout top bull run followed by a correction bear market. We're 3 months over due for the start of one compared to 2017's cycle, and even more overdue compared to 2020/21's cycle.
Then again, the longer it takes to start the higher the top will be...
Only time will tell.
Either way I expect $250k+ by Q4 26.
Market cap is probably too large nowadays for those kinds of moves, what's your take?
Possibly yeah.
My thinking is that the last few cycles Bitcoin had orders of magnitude smaller market caps that could be more easily swayed by the standard market players and public attention. As a result the previous breakout tops were the result of temporary market bubbles to beyond sustainable prices, resulting in a pop followed by a bear market.
Now that the network is worth 2+ trillion these market players are no longer able to influence the price as they once could simply because they're relatively smaller now. We are going to reach a point sooner or later where we just no longer have blowout tops ever again, but I think we could go either way at this point.
2 (or 3 or 4 or 5) data points on cycle timing is wooooooooefully insufficient to draw these kind of conclusions.
Take a crash course (on line) in statistics. 📊 🤓
PS
I only responded because so many intelligent bitcoiners fall for this and it always shocks me.
I did take a low level business statistics course at college but I feel like I'm trying to look at data with a limited tool set it's true.
I would like to know more about statistics. Could you recommend a low cost/free online course I could look at that? Would be greatly appreciated!
Yeah I agree, the bottoms have thousands of data points but the crazy tops only have a few. I am not as confident in my observations of the tops given the minimal data, so I'm generally more focused on finding trends in the bottom trend. I often post deeper analysis of the bottom trend.
For the tops, I mostly pay attention to any changes in long term trends which might indicate a new breakout top is forming. Currently the data seems to suggest we're in calm times with no risk of a breakout top followed by a bear crash, just standard minor market price volatility that is generally close to production cost.
I’m talking about the timing and magnitudes of the overall 4 year cycle. We have had less than a handful. So there is literally NO statistical significance (ie math) in saying things like “we are already 3 months late”.
It would take a minimum of a few dozen cycles to glean that kind of rigorous analytical conclusion.
All we can say is, “gee, the last couple were like this, so maybe this one will be similar”
It’s literally throwing a dart at the board with one eye shut and the other blurry 😉
I say all this because the potential for getting reck’d using 3 cycles for data points and then trading off that is massive and I sense we will see it in real time the rest of this cycle.
Hypothetical example…..
“Bitcoin USUALLY tops out 15 months after halving and last cycle it only went to 3.5x previous cycle top before correcting 75 percent. THEREFORE, I will sell my bitcoin at 180-200k in Sept/Oct/Nov (when it gets there), because THE MATH says I will be able to buy it back at 50-60k in 2026/7”
Then the price goes to 250, 300, 350 and the statistically challenged Bitcoin maxi is freaking out and buys it back only to CREATE the top at 400/450 for this cycle before we retrace 60/5 percent back to his original sale approx 175 at the next cycle bottom.
I sense this exact example and many derivatives of it will occur over the next 12-18 months….
All because of THE MATH. Which of course (statistically speaking) was never math all along.
Too few (cycle) data points.
Thx for allowing me to rant. Felt good 🤣
Just look how different JUST the last TWO cycles were to thier predecessors.
2021/2 cycle high was 3.5x 2017/18
Yet 2017/18 was 20x 2013/4!!!!
