What do you think would happen to Bitcoinâs price if there was another subprime mortgage crisis that triggers another global financial meltdown? The mother of all sell offs or the ultimate god candle pump?
Serious question. I am currently studying the US, UK and Australian housing markets as a possible canary in the coal mine for another global financial meltdown/collapse. Appreciate your thoughts. Cheers. #asknostr #bitcoin
Initial hit followed by massive bailouts, banker bonuses, QE liquidity injection.
Yes, definitely the consensus. My research so far shows that there is another subprime mortgage crisis brewing in the US housing market and another GFC style meltdown as a result. Likely the âbig printâ trigger 26/27!
I think there would be a sell off as people would need liquid funds to keep other assets solvent but after a sudden drop I think it would build back up to even higher heights.
Thanks for this. Definitely the consensus! Hodlers would be tested though đŤ¨
Short term everything falls down. Then as usual printer turns on. After that Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity. Even if you donât have the boom on housing. They will start to print very soon because of the debt, so a bust on anything would actually be desired as an excuse
So far based on my research there is deep trouble brewing with both the US commercial building and residential housing sectors. âThe Big Printâ trigger is feeling itchy!
When I mean short term can be a full month going down, you can base yourself on the covid fall. Also one thing donât get hung up on housing. It can be several reasons for the crash. It can be housing, office real state, car loans, a problem in Japan, China does something and AI bubble in America pops, war breaks out in Taiwan, etc.
One of the reasons I have been following the housing market is because there seems to be both data and cyclical predictive patterns converging. But yes, could be any of the above or a mix!
I understand. I think if you look deeper I you would see converging patterns on a lot of different sectors or industries because the game ias been rigged so much everything is tied to the liquidity of credit.
Sell off til money printer go burrr again
maybe it's a series that you don't get carried away by the first thing they tell you so as not to fall into the trap of investing everything you have in something risky, since the little I understand about the crises that have occurred is that people often They invest everything because they let themselves go and if they put everything they have into it, they will earn more it is as if they have been put into a bet where the chances of winning are very low or no longer exist.
BTC gets sold for sure. Big sell off.
Govts cannot afford a crash at this point tho, expect money printer to get fired at any hint of weakness.
Thanks for this. Seems to be the consensus. đ
My 2 satsâŚBitcoin dumps hard initially (50-70%) in a liquidity crunch. Everything correlates to 1.0 when the selling starts.
But the policy response is what matters. Another housing crisis means extreme money printing since central banks are already boxed in. Thatâs when Bitcoinâs supply cap gets its real test.
Brutal drawdown first, then potential massive recovery when the printers turn on. March 2020 to late 2021 was exactly this pattern.
Thanks for this. What do you mean by âeverything correlates to 1.0 when the selling starts?â
When I say âeverything correlates to 1.0â I mean all asset correlations converge toward perfect positive correlation during panic selling.
Normally, different assets move independently or inversely (stocks vs bonds, crypto vs gold, etc). But in a liquidity crisis, institutions and investors are forced to sell everything they can to raise cashâŚmargin calls, redemptions, meeting obligations, etc.
So you get indiscriminate selling across all risk assets simultaneously. Bitcoin, stocks, gold, real estate, bonds, they all dump together because people need dollars/liquidity NOW. The usual diversification benefits disappear.
Got it! Thanks đ
