Replying to Avatar Chris Liss

The halving isn’t really an event because it’s just 450 fewer coins per day. It’s no different than if someone new came in and bought 450 coins one day.

It’s something that happens over time when each day there’s that much less supply and eventually that lack is felt in the market.

It’s kind of like how June 21 is the longest day, but the cumulative above-average sunlight takes two more months to achieve maximum heat in August.

Only in the case of the halving, it would be like every day were as long as June 21 until 4 years later when it got even longer.
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343PG 1y ago

All of your post makes kind of sense as to waiting for something to play out - logically miners are forced sellers of bitcoin in having to take care of their costs, and the competition / difficult adjustment takes care of the general dynamics around that.

What makes far less sense is once you take into account that we all know the halving is happening. And the following ones, etc. Yet not many of us have fully wrapped our heads around it, or more of us would be on a full Bitcoin standard (volatility permitting!)

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Chris Liss 1y ago

yeah, that it's not priced in long-term is odd, but I think that's part of the dynamic of it not being an event that people can price in. It’s only understandable when supply shows up later.