All of your post makes kind of sense as to waiting for something to play out - logically miners are forced sellers of bitcoin in having to take care of their costs, and the competition / difficult adjustment takes care of the general dynamics around that.

What makes far less sense is once you take into account that we all know the halving is happening. And the following ones, etc. Yet not many of us have fully wrapped our heads around it, or more of us would be on a full Bitcoin standard (volatility permitting!)