Us is more likely to fall to authoritarianism imo

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I think something else is going happen

Nothing will happen until enough men wake up to the JQ

I can see the US falling into regionalism just as easily. You've got half the country voting for limited govt. They're getting pissed as the figure out they aren't getting it by voting.

Authoritarianism is the default path, though for the US I think civil war is a likely potential alternative. Unfortunately I don't see any happy alternative paths, leviathan can either be painfully deconstructed (not likely) or catastrophically imploded (more likely). This is why I see value in parallel decentralized systems already being in place, they can facilitate a shift away from the authoritarian system even as it the catastrophic part of the collapse is in progress.