Subnostr

Right now, before the ETF approval which may give us some breathing room, I think we may go to a scenario of more pain and re-test the bottom of the power law model like in 2015 and 2016.

I'm not basing this on anything, it's just a gut feeling.

Macroeconomic conditions are totally different from the cycles that have occurred over the last 100 years, it is very difficult to forecast what will happen.

I think bitcoin will grow little by little but I don't expect a massive bull run.

Brisket 2y ago

This lull around 20-30k could go on for another 12 months.

I think at some point it breaks into a bull run more inline with the early bull runs & not the previous 2.

I think the ETFs will eventually be used to stop this from getting out of hand by satisfying demand for bitcoin exposure. It will be another FTX but on a much larger scale & at much higher prices.

I think the risk to the upside is greater than the risk to the downside. The supercycle talk last cycle was just a little too soon imo.

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Discussion

thepurpose 2y ago

I disageee. We did a good test with talking about supercycling into hyperbitcoinization and gave us the attribute that at least we were warning everyone which we could reach that the signs are there and rising.

This is my opinion as a reply to your view of being to early:

nostr:nevent1qqs2f4rwfcs4x3udxsj9hnlgnfxnysppe62ma9d5pm8yst5lputrj5spr4mhxue69uhkummnw3ez6ur4vgh8wetvd3hhyer9wghxuet5qgs8mc77lrfprxw943acyu6ukwm0kjphm77re5cnpw8lppw4psuykscrqsqqqqqpaak3wd

Brisket 2y ago

The supercycle wheels are greased now.

It won't be long before it's rolled out again.

thepurpose 2y ago

True