Right now, before the ETF approval which may give us some breathing room, I think we may go to a scenario of more pain and re-test the bottom of the power law model like in 2015 and 2016.
I'm not basing this on anything, it's just a gut feeling.
Macroeconomic conditions are totally different from the cycles that have occurred over the last 100 years, it is very difficult to forecast what will happen.
I think bitcoin will grow little by little but I don't expect a massive bull run.
Makes sense.
It will take a while for the money printing to catch up to us.
My feeling is that the next halving will not be like the previous ones. 🤙
Seems about right, but where's the surprise? There always is.
This lull around 20-30k could go on for another 12 months.
I think at some point it breaks into a bull run more inline with the early bull runs & not the previous 2.
I think the ETFs will eventually be used to stop this from getting out of hand by satisfying demand for bitcoin exposure. It will be another FTX but on a much larger scale & at much higher prices.
I think the risk to the upside is greater than the risk to the downside. The supercycle talk last cycle was just a little too soon imo.
I disageee. We did a good test with talking about supercycling into hyperbitcoinization and gave us the attribute that at least we were warning everyone which we could reach that the signs are there and rising.
This is my opinion as a reply to your view of being to early:
Charts with Dollars in function of time. Watch out. We are going to crush/synthetisize that x axis at just one specific "time" at one specific "place in space" and when this sinks in, Natural Science not even DOES NOT KNOW WHAT TIME IS (as.it.is.right.now) but has to aling all of their foundation to a new core. The new found Renaissance. Few.
h/t nostr:npub1hrctsg2qwu5gsp65gvj29968z460g0th755jq92c8uaz620lewmq6qk525 for the new found Renaissance. 🫂😘
Here is an example applied to myself of why not to trade.
For this reason I have commented many times that I don't like to show charts, because time ends up leaving you bad.
I have spent more than half my life dedicated to investments on a personal basis, and if I have learned anything, it is that the investor makes money, the trader loses everything and the dead are usually the richest.
Here are some other tips that I have learned over the last 20 years:
- Only US indices.
- Big tech stocks.
- Bitcoin cancels all of the above.
- DCA and HODL, it's unbeatable, no matter how you look at it.
nostr:note1c9f8g33m99pheg7ajvqwdmljda54rpelk3w5u8kel40ae3ltp7nqdqnd2a
