The last cycle was “different” because of the truncated top. So if last cycle was “different”, why can’t this time be “different” too? Whatever causes maximum surprise to the predominant price hypothesis. Last time, everyone and their mother thought $250k.

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$12k. Got it.

You shouldn't worry about that a lot, though. On the long run, Bitcoin wins either by the law of supply and demand or by natural selection. Low time preference is key. At the end, we can't really control the world