The market has been pricing in a Fed pivot way too soon for a while now, although more recently it's been pushed further out.
Inflation is still running too high and the Fed is NOT going to pivot until unemployment blows up. Those are their two mandates, inflation and employment.
Officially that is their mandate but unofficially it’s the S&P500. They won’t pivot until it’s below 3200. That will likely coincide with higher unemployment but its 6 of one half dozen of the other. That’s also why it’s so dumb to buy stocks in anticipation of a pivot. By definition you are going to make less money than if you just wait for the pivot. Or at least wait for the larger drawdown first
