* less than 140k as lower bound, less than 500k as upperbound
Discussion
i think it's a sigma curve, which means that deceleration can be expected but will move to acceleration after that
adoption curves are sigma curves
https://rmi.org/insight/harnessing-the-power-of-s-curves/
i think the fact that the new president of USA is talking up bitcoin means we are in the steepest part of the sigma, which means acceleration should start either this cycle or the next
and yeah, the reason for the deceleration is described in the 4th segment of that chart... it's because bitcoiners have been investing in rolling out the infrastructure to enable the adoption to take place, we are in the late half of that part of the cycle for sure... and not only that, it looks like the 4 year cycle may even be the exact match for the adoption phases in this case, partly because of the 10x each time
i would bet that if you look at a chart showing the estimate of number of active wallets over the life cycle of bitcoin we are coming to an acceleration point just like the sigma curve
this is when the payoff really kicks in for the early adopters... this is when the tableflip starts
it also may require taking into account the disappearance of on chain transaction into lightning, which means you probably need to composit the on-chain wallet estimation with the growth of the number of lightning nodes and UTXOs creating channels
and the advances in that tech are also concealing this userbase acceleration a bit as well i think, it may not even look much like acceleration on the basis of on-chain wallets, because of the necessity to shift more and more offchain
I strongly agree with you, but I expect that the acceleration phase will be triggered next cycle; I feel something still need his time to spread and stick in the social actors.
I also think that the past cycle was weak in terms of price appreciation because of a peak-of-shitcoinery and various external factors, so this cycle expect a sligthly better performance over the past.
My nostradamus 2 cents, I expect to be surprised as always happens...