Very interesting to see what markets do as the US gets going this Monday
What does a Bitcoin sell-off tell us?
Discussion
I'm wondering if it's part of a larger cash liquidity crisis that's been looming for a while now.
it's going to be a bad day tomorrow for the markets.
Panic at the Disco 🕺… Investors are going to be building little liquidity moats around their levered positions.
Easiest liquidity to tap is Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin sell-off tells us there could be blood on the streets 🩸 .
I’m honestly surprised about people being surprised about this. It was telegraphed a week in advance that Canada+Mexico tariffs would take effect on 1st of Feb.
Though I do wonder what’s going to happen as the US markets open. As in, the market will drop, that’s for sure, but I wonder what will Bitcoin do. E.g. is it a continued sell-off “because markets are dropping”, or is Bitcoin sell-off done because “We were open over the weekend, and did our dropping already.”
Longer term, very bullish still. I view all of this as the coil being wound up for the eventual pop.
My personal hunch is that intra-day stuff, macro traders etc, love feeding on this type of information. Is it priced in? Clearly not. In particular Bitcoin seems to act as a good barometer on sentiment, as the most liquid asset globally. The canary in the coal mine type thing.
I then tend to feel that Bitcoin will not be hammered as hard when the market opens, as all the tradfi assets are then tradeable
What feels best: HODLing Bitcoin in self-custody (I just don't really care what everyone else is up to)
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