Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Russell Napier is one of my favorite macro analysts that I've learned a lot from over the years. Had the chance to meet him at a dinner the other day and discuss macro with him.

Him and I often have similar macro views and a focus on the topic of fiscal dominance and the financial repression that follows. But an area of historic difference is that he has viewed Bitcoin as unlikely to win. He has viewed it as something that governments will ultimately not allow to function once the gloves come off and financial repression gets real from the major powers.

So I discussed that with him, since while I acknowledge that threat as being real, I think Bitcoin is a solid foundation to push back with. But in addition, I also highlighted Nostr, and decentralized comms and social media in general.

Back in the 1930s-1940s when the US banned gold ownership and implemented yield curve control (hard core financial repression), information moved slowly. A lot of information was one-directional. It was hard for people to coordinate with each other at large scales.

But social media changes the game entirely. People can meme about it in real time. Government and central bank social media accounts can get ratio'd. Maybe one day they'll try to put a stop to that on centralized social media platforms, but that's why the decentralized protocols are so important. The tools are simply much better today, making that type of smooth and coordinated financial repression harder to do since all of their reasons can be dissected and dunked on in real time.

Out of curiosity, how will that threat (i.e. “governments not allowing it to function”) look like from your perspective?

Maybe I’m missing something but I think most they can do is tax the hell out of people who hold it in self custody and report it (capital gains, both realized and even unrealized), or even make its ownership illegal in order to get some to comply.

But even then (and by the way I see that scenario a 100% probability one, at least in some countries), I don’t see how Bitcoin “would not function”. People would still be using it. Granted, not everybody. And granted, maybe out of the law. But precisely in that scenario would Bitcoin be the life boat on a sinking ship, and not an NGU scheme for getting some alpha.

The Atlas Shrugged scenario is quite a possible one, at least from my viewpoint looking at things from a western EU country.

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Totally see your point! Even if governments push back, Bitcoin can still thrive. People will always seek ways to use it, especially when times get tough. It’s like a hidden lifeboat! 🚀🔒