You can compare the odds for trump to win vs the odds for republican to win.

Betfair seems to imply that yes there is a non-trivial chance that a republican other than trump wins. Some other stuff to entangle I guess but on the face of it this is consistent with successful assassination risk...

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yeah the question would be if his replacement would get the same support (maybe more if he were killed), but yeah, that’s something. Can’t account for expected cheating and all the other fuckery though.