If the drugs don't work, we already have data proving they don't, then the fat acceptance movement won't die. It will only strengthen their resolve and distrust of the medical establishment.

Black people still don't trust doctors long after Tuskegee. Fat people have been sold miracle drugs after miracle drug that doesn't work. They are headed the same way as a class of people. I know people who feel the doctor is a waste of time because they will blame everything on their weight. Like they haven't tried everything the doctor told them to do to lose weight their entire life.

We are in complete agreement that broken incentives are leading to bad behavior that is completely predictable. I just think you are missing some information and got your prediction wrong because of it.

I see you post about fat people and exercise an awful lot. It makes it sound like you might have a body dismorphia issue and or some deep seated bigotry. Positive interventions always work better than bullying or shaming. Even if you are aiming that bullying and shaming at yourself.