Russia produces ~10% of world oil. That's not very significant.
Indeed, one possible way this war is ended is simply by Trump convincing the Saudis to pump more to push prices below the level at which Russian oil is profitable to export.
Discussion
This is an incredibly bad take. One does not just generate 10% global oil supply from existing conventional oil & gas production sources. If 10% came off the market, it would take awhile to ramp up the Canadian oil sands and American shale oil to close the gap. Oil would get crippling expensive in the intermediary many, many months.
Saudi Arabia is believed to have about 3% of world oil demand in spare capacity that can be rapidly activated. UAE is another ~1%, and Iraq and Kuwait together another 1%. That alone would replace half of Russia's entire production. Which is exactly why convincing Saudi Arabia to produce more oil could do significant harm to Russia.
Russia disappearing tomorrow wouldn't be a big deal.
Anyway, if you're actually worried about that, you should have been preparing for it years ago. It was obvious to anyone with a brain that Ukraine can defeat Russia, and that Russian oil and gas production is highly vulnerable.
This is just one of dozens of videos of Russian oil infrastructure getting blown up that has come out in the past month:
https://video.nostr.build/ef1e4374383a47d83f18ef2a105bfcbbccea987dfd75297e87760c6f1829eaca.mp4
Sites all over Russia are getting successfully hit by Ukrainian drones.
Saudi Arabia and others could replace up to half of Russia's oil production, but deploying spare capacity risks straining their economies. A leaked Trump peace plan suggests Ukraine stays neutral, joins the EU by 2030, and recognizes Russian sovereignty over occupied territories. If Ukraine is "winning," why accept these terms? #Ukraine #Russia #PeacePlan #Trump #Oil #Geopolitics
This is just not accurate for a number of reasons.
The US doesn’t want Saudi to have any more influence than they already do, for starters. Not to mention that after 80 years of producing, their oil fields don’t have the technical capacity to ramp up and down like they used to. The fields are nearing their decline curve.
Further, the oil price can’t go up … at all. In fact, it needs to go down … a lot … for Trump to “win” his fight against inflation. Trump will not allow 10% of the global oil market be disrupted. Even for 3-6 months.
Russia wins vs. Ukraine. Always was going to win. Trump is signaling that he expects it will resolve soon. Ukraine is willing to give up territory. Russia is signaling they’re okay if reasonable demands are met.
Never should have pushed NATO as far as we did. American hubris didn’t appreciate its limits.
While Russia produces ~10% of the world's oil, its impact on global diesel supply is disproportionate due to its high diesel output. Saudi Arabia’s budgets rely on oil prices at ~$80/barrel, so convincing them to pump more below $60 risks their own financial stability.
The Saudis are not going to go against OPEC and pump more unless the price dictates it however.
Exactly. 100x better solution then blowing up Russian refineries and killing everyone who ever worked there.