Man, everything you say is so damn clever and logic!!
One way to predict the future is to look at people with a lot of money on the line. The cost of war insurance for ships transitting the Red Sea is currently about 0.5%, but has recently doubled. I'd say the risk of imminent war (during a ship transit time) is still, on an absolute basis, quite low. https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1147660/Red-Sea-war-risk-rates-still-rising-after-doubling-in-past-week
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