One way to predict the future is to look at people with a lot of money on the line. The cost of war insurance for ships transitting the Red Sea is currently about 0.5%, but has recently doubled. I'd say the risk of imminent war (during a ship transit time) is still, on an absolute basis, quite low. https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1147660/Red-Sea-war-risk-rates-still-rising-after-doubling-in-past-week
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BTW that is not the odds of an imminent war. That is the odds that an imminent war would totally destroy some randomly selected ship, plus a bit for profit.
For comparison, Black Sea rates are around 2.75%, and there is an active war happening over there.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2421851/amp
They’re also only targeting ships to Isreal in an attempt to force Isreal into a ceasefire in Gaza. So as long as the ‘West’ does not attempt to defend Israeli ships and truely escalate the situation, the risk of imminent war is low I agree.