I’d say it’s not about randomness but rather each of us operating with imperfect information. That leads us to each have different priors and therefore different expectations. When things proceed along someone else’s expectations rather than our own, it’s evidence in favor of the priors they had held.
Basically, it’s also not random when we’re wrong.
I see what you're saying. I think it's partly a matter of how confident one is with their assessment of Trump's motivations and commitment to promises, based on lots of interviews and past actions, vs conceding he's no different based off a few recent actions that are still playing out. Definitely waning a bit, but feels too soon to declare him an outright fraud.
Right and even amongst those who think he’s different, we’ll still differ on how different we think he is and in what ways.
