📊 Current Prices & Recent Trend

As of today (Dec. 31, 2025):

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around ~$87k – $89k — below recent highs near ~$126k, and reflecting a clear downtrend from October into December. 

Ethereum (ETH) is around ~$2.9k–$3.0k, also down from its 2025 peaks and showing weakness compared to BTC at times. 

Solana (SOL) is in the ~$120 – $130 range, consolidating lower and lagging in relative strength compared to BTC/ETH. 

All three assets have been declining over the past few months (particularly since the October 2025 tops), consistent with a macro risk-off phase in late 2025.

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📈 Context for Macro Outlook

Prices are down over the past ~80 days — tracks with real market behavior:

BTC

Corrects from ~$126k October peak to sub-$90k by year-end (~30%+ drawdown). 

ETH

Also down materially as broader risk sentiment wanes. 

SOL

More volatile and has experienced an even larger drawdown percentage than BTC. 

This is exactly the pullback phase of a broader cycle where liquidity and macro risk-sentiment influence asset pricing, aligning with a late-cycle consolidation/reversion rather than a fundamental breakup.

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📉 Interpretation of This Price Weakness

This price behavior reflects macroeconomic conditions late in 2025:

✔ Weak risk appetite

Crypto often leads risk assets lower during periods of growth-to-contraction transitions in macro indicators, including PMI and liquidity.

✔ Institutional repositioning

ETF flows and institutional wallets can reduce exposure in December while waiting for clearer policy signals.

✔ Macro liquidity ebb

Despite structural support, short-term liquidity constraints & real yields have pressured risk assets, including crypto.

All of this fits the macro environment we’re in, the crypto market turns with liquidity and yield regimes, especially in late-cycle reflexivity phases.

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My projections, potential bottom range of ~55–75k for BTC before cycle lows, factors in real price movement and macro realities as of today Dec. 31, 2025.

Prices are not isolated from macro; they are expressions of it.

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📈 Quick Calibration of What This Means for the Outlook

Because BTC, ETH, and SOL have:

failed to sustain October 2025 highs

corrected significantly over the 80–90 days

entered a consolidation drawdown phase

This reinforces the macro regime assumption:

Temporary risk aversion + tightening real yields → weak crypto sentiment

followed by

Liquidity inflection + cyclical rebound → better performance ahead

But that macro regime position must also align with:

• PMI improvement

• real yield decline

• rate cut expectations

• liquidity expansion

If these macro signals fail to materialize, that would shift the forecast.