For those who know me, know that this last year and a half has been… tough to put it lightly. And you also know that I had a real low point this year of stress and anxiety.

Not looking for sympathy but just wanna say thank you to everyone who’s been there for me, it really feels like things are turning a corner and I’m excited for where things are going.

I’m beyond blessed to have the friends and family I have.

#IDontGetTired #newyear2026

Bars

📊 Current Prices & Recent Trend

As of today (Dec. 31, 2025):

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around ~$87k – $89k — below recent highs near ~$126k, and reflecting a clear downtrend from October into December. 

Ethereum (ETH) is around ~$2.9k–$3.0k, also down from its 2025 peaks and showing weakness compared to BTC at times. 

Solana (SOL) is in the ~$120 – $130 range, consolidating lower and lagging in relative strength compared to BTC/ETH. 

All three assets have been declining over the past few months (particularly since the October 2025 tops), consistent with a macro risk-off phase in late 2025.

⸻

📈 Context for Macro Outlook

Prices are down over the past ~80 days — tracks with real market behavior:

BTC

Corrects from ~$126k October peak to sub-$90k by year-end (~30%+ drawdown). 

ETH

Also down materially as broader risk sentiment wanes. 

SOL

More volatile and has experienced an even larger drawdown percentage than BTC. 

This is exactly the pullback phase of a broader cycle where liquidity and macro risk-sentiment influence asset pricing, aligning with a late-cycle consolidation/reversion rather than a fundamental breakup.

⸻

📉 Interpretation of This Price Weakness

This price behavior reflects macroeconomic conditions late in 2025:

✔ Weak risk appetite

Crypto often leads risk assets lower during periods of growth-to-contraction transitions in macro indicators, including PMI and liquidity.

✔ Institutional repositioning

ETF flows and institutional wallets can reduce exposure in December while waiting for clearer policy signals.

✔ Macro liquidity ebb

Despite structural support, short-term liquidity constraints & real yields have pressured risk assets, including crypto.

All of this fits the macro environment we’re in, the crypto market turns with liquidity and yield regimes, especially in late-cycle reflexivity phases.

⸻

My projections, potential bottom range of ~55–75k for BTC before cycle lows, factors in real price movement and macro realities as of today Dec. 31, 2025.

Prices are not isolated from macro; they are expressions of it.

⸻

📈 Quick Calibration of What This Means for the Outlook

Because BTC, ETH, and SOL have:

failed to sustain October 2025 highs

corrected significantly over the 80–90 days

entered a consolidation drawdown phase

This reinforces the macro regime assumption:

Temporary risk aversion + tightening real yields → weak crypto sentiment

followed by

Liquidity inflection + cyclical rebound → better performance ahead

But that macro regime position must also align with:

• PMI improvement

• real yield decline

• rate cut expectations

• liquidity expansion

If these macro signals fail to materialize, that would shift the forecast.

I’d break my laptop running to watch the video.

Every year I think “they can’t turn this year into glasses.”

Every year I am proven wrong.

Happy New Year Everyone!

On one hand, that's cheaper than America or other places in the world, on the other hand, I'd be fucking pissed.

Hardcore endgame here

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nostr:npub1cn4t4cd78nm900qc2hhqte5aa8c9njm6qkfzw95tszufwcwtcnsq7g3vle

Five long years, nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttsw43zuam9d3kx7unyv4ezumn9wsqzp382htsmu08k277ps40wqhnfm60st89h5pvjyutghq9cjasuh38q7t6dtc stored these Sats... up his ass...

How are we all doing today?

Part of what I like personally about Nostr is that it is separate from Twitter

In Sats we trust.

I’ll be your not normie family Joe

Joe Nakamoto 4 President

As Satoshi intended

Anyone wanna join me on a weight loss journey? I’m starting Keto

Fuck Monsanto

Gives Jimmy Buffet vibes

Goat

Social Capital put $10M into Groq’s seed round in April 2017 when the company was worth roughly $30M post-money. That single check bought about 33% of the company. Then they doubled down with $52.3M in a 2018 convertible note.

Total deployed: $62.3M.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Groq raised $300M at $1.1B in 2021, then $640M at $2.8B in 2024, then $750M at $6.9B in September 2025. Each round diluted early investors. But Social Capital had board seats and likely maintained some pro-rata through the convertible.

Conservative math: They own somewhere between 15-20% of Groq today. At $20B, that’s $3B to $4B in value.

$62M in. $3-4B out. That’s a 50-65x return in 8 years.

For context, this single investment is worth more than Social Capital’s entire fund size in 2015 ($1.1B). One bet. Eight years. 50x.

The timing is the wildest part. Chamath invested in custom AI chips in 2017, years before ChatGPT made inference compute a thing. He sat on the board until 2021, then stepped back right as the company was entering its growth phase.

Now Nvidia is paying $20B in cash because they need Groq’s LPU architecture for inference at scale. Jensen is essentially writing Chamath a check for being early on the inference bottleneck.

Merry Christmas

Sam Altman: “Okay OpenAi I need you to make ChatGPT better.”

OpenAI employees: “Okay Gemini… how do we make ChatGPT better?”

I’m grateful for my family

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Merry Christmas everyone

One would hope so

Yeah I’ve been rebuilding my position cause I was unemployed for 7 months and had to survive, no I’m not happy about it, but it was that or lose my house

What are y’all’s plans for Christmas?